{"url":"https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/uk-world-war-ai-future-markets-britain-b2960068.html?loginSuccessful=true","title":"This man just predicted when the UK will go to war – it’s closer than you think","domain":"independent.co.uk","imageUrl":"https://images.pexels.com/photos/9267821/pexels-photo-9267821.jpeg?auto=compress&cs=tinysrgb&h=650&w=940","pexelsSearchTerm":"British soldier war","category":"World","language":"en","slug":"000b942f","id":"000b942f-7dfc-43e3-8133-2dc961601842","description":"Dr Keith Dear's AI firm Cassi forecasts a 25% chance of Britain in a major war before 2036.","summary":"## TL;DR\n- Dr Keith Dear's AI firm Cassi forecasts a **25%** chance of Britain in a major war before **2036**.\n- Spending **3% of GDP** on defence over five years could halve that risk to **10%**, per his Commons testimony.\n- The approach beats big AI rivals by quantifying threats like Russia conflict (**17%**) to aid decisions.\n\n## The story at a glance\nChris Blackhurst profiles Dr Keith Dear, ex-RAF intelligence officer and Cassi co-founder, whose AI predicts UK war risks. Dear testified to the Commons Defence Committee, updating odds after US-Israel strikes on Iran. This comes amid worries over Britain's defence readiness.[[1]](https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/uk-world-war-ai-future-markets-britain-b2960068.html?loginSuccessful=true)[[2]](https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/uk-world-war-ai-future-markets-britain-b2960068.html)\n\n## Key points\n- Major war means over **500** British deaths or **250** in a conflict with **10,000** combatant deaths; last was Korean War.\n- Probability rose from **20%** (\"one in five\") to **25%** (\"one in four\") post-strikes on Iran.\n- **17%** chance of UK-Russia conflict before 2036, making it the likeliest major foe.\n- **26%** odds of China-Taiwan war, but only **11%** boost to UK major involvement.\n- Cassi, an **11-person** firm, tops AI forecasting rankings over Anthropic, Google, xAI, OpenAI, Meta.\n- Dear's background: **18** years RAF intelligence in Afghanistan, Iraq, Mali; ex-Downing Street adviser; Fujitsu role.\n- Firm aids governments, firms on geopolitics, markets, like **25%** chance of Iran uprising by **30 April 2026**.[[1]](https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/uk-world-war-ai-future-markets-britain-b2960068.html?loginSuccessful=true)\n\n## Details and context\nCassi uses an AI \"Moneyball\" method, inspired by Michael Lewis's book, to score and mimic top expert judgments where war data is scarce and misleading. Unlike sports, geopolitics lacks stable rules, so they test intuitions explicitly.\n\nThe firm helps Whitehall prioritise spending by quantifying collapse risks, like Treasury bids for extra funds. On markets, it spots non-consensus drivers like war or regulation over routine commodities.\n\nDear stresses numbers grab attention: vague terms like \"substantial to severe\" are ignored, but \"**60% to 80%**\" prompts action. Outcomes depend on users, akin to buying insurance despite **10%** fire odds.\n\n## Key quotes\n> “The forecasts suggest that if the UK consistently spends 3 per cent of GDP on a five-year average basis by 2036, then the probability of the UK being involved in a major conflict drops by 50 per cent in relative terms: from 20 per cent to 10 per cent. A drop from one in five to one in 10.”[[1]](https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/uk-world-war-ai-future-markets-britain-b2960068.html?loginSuccessful=true)\n\n> “If you say the probability of something bad occurring has moved from ‘substantial’ to ‘severe’, nobody listens. If you say it’s gone from 60 per cent to 80 per cent or higher, then they do.” – *Dr Keith Dear*[[1]](https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/uk-world-war-ai-future-markets-britain-b2960068.html?loginSuccessful=true)\n\n## Why it matters\nRising war forecasts highlight UK's vulnerability amid global tensions like Iran and Russia. Leaders and investors gain tools to weigh defence spending against **50%** risk cuts, while firms use probabilistic edges in uncertain markets. Watch if government hikes to **3% GDP** or Cassi influences policy, though real-world tests remain uncertain.\n\n\n**LANG:** en**","hashtags":["#ai","#defence","#uk","#russia","#war"],"sources":[{"url":"https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/uk-world-war-ai-future-markets-britain-b2960068.html?loginSuccessful=true","title":"Original article"},{"url":"https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/uk-world-war-ai-future-markets-britain-b2960068.html","title":""}],"viewCount":2,"publishedAt":"2026-04-18T08:27:09.624Z","createdAt":"2026-04-18T08:27:09.624Z","articlePublishedAt":"2026-04-18T05:00:00.000Z"}