{"url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/which-countries-will-run-out-energy-first","title":"SocGen: Asia's Oil Reserves Race to Empty First","domain":"zerohedge.com","imageUrl":"https://images.pexels.com/photos/16207911/pexels-photo-16207911.jpeg?auto=compress&cs=tinysrgb&h=650&w=940","category":"World","language":"en","slug":"cde5611f","id":"cde5611f-a540-4c19-895d-906e3e004c54","description":"SocGen analysis ranks Asian importers by oil reserve depletion risk amid Strait of Hormuz blockade from Iran war.","summary":"## TL;DR\n- **SocGen** analysis ranks Asian importers by oil reserve depletion risk amid **Strait of Hormuz** blockade from **Iran war**.\n- **Myanmar**, **Vietnam**, **Philippines** face crisis first with **~1 month** reserves after **80%** Hormuz-dependent imports.\n- Asia hits shortages soonest, forcing rationing, demand cuts, while US buffers with production.\n\n## The story at a glance\n**Société Générale** commodities team assesses which countries exhaust oil stocks first if **Strait of Hormuz** stays restricted by **Iran** amid war. Asia bears brunt due to heavy reliance on Gulf crude passing the chokepoint. Article highlights vulnerabilities exposed by reduced tanker traffic from **40** daily pre-war to **~500,000 bpd** now.\n\n## Key moments & milestones\n- Pre-war: **40** tankers carry **20 million bpd** through **Strait of Hormuz**.\n- Iran restricts flows to **500,000 bpd** trickle, shutting in **6.7 million bpd** Gulf production.\n- **IEA** plans **400 million barrel** release over months to offset shortages.\n- **Australia** secures shipments into April but holds only **30 days** reserves.\n- **Philippines** declares emergency; **Bangladesh** rations fuel, closes fertilizer plants.\n\n## Signature highlights\n- **Myanmar**, **Vietnam**, **Philippines**: **>80%** oil imports via Hormuz cargoes; **~30 days** reserves.[[1]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2026/03/17/the-countries-most-in-danger-of-running-out-of-oil)\n- **Australia**: **~30 days** net imports; sole **IEA** member below **90-day** mandate, relies on **just-in-time** Asian refiners.[[2]](https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/australia-has-one-month-energy-crisis-and-fuel-rationing)\n- **Singapore**: **680,000 bpd** Hormuz crude; **40 days** cover.\n- **Thailand**: **400,000 bpd** imports; **50 days** cover.\n- **China**: **45%** imports (**~5 million bpd**) via Hormuz; **300+ days** endurance via **1.3 billion barrel** reserves.\n\n| Country | Hormuz Oil Dependence | Reserve Cover (Days, No Hormuz) |\n|---------|-----------------------|---------------------------------|\n| **Myanmar/Vietnam/Philippines** | **>80%** | **~30**[[1]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2026/03/17/the-countries-most-in-danger-of-running-out-of-oil) |\n| **Australia** | **>50%** refined products | **30**[[2]](https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/australia-has-one-month-energy-crisis-and-fuel-rationing) |\n| **Japan** | High | **200**[[1]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2026/03/17/the-countries-most-in-danger-of-running-out-of-oil) |\n\n## Key quotes\n- \"**Distinct possibility** planes may be grounded due to jet fuel shortage\": **Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos**.[[3]](https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/grounding-planes-distinct-possibility-tightened-global-fuel-supply-hitting-asian-nations)\n\n## Why it matters\nDisruptions cut **7%** global crude supply, spiking prices and risking **OPEC** output drop to **22.3 million bpd**. Importers face rationing, blackouts, economic contraction; businesses curb ops, consumers see empty pumps. Monitor **Hormuz** flows, **IEA** releases, **Iran** ceasefire prospects.","hashtags":["#energy","#oil","#geopolitics","#iran","#hormuz","#commodities"],"viewCount":2,"publishedAt":"2026-04-04T19:21:26.225Z"}