Trump’s Hormuz blockade: a risky bid to force Iran’s hand

Source: economist.com

TL;DR

The story at a glance

America and Israel started a war against Iran on February 28th, prompting fears Iran would fully block the Strait of Hormuz; instead, it has restricted shipping, cut oil exports, and let some vessels through for a fee. On April 13th, President Trump responded with a US naval blockade of Iranian ports and coastal traffic to strangle Iran's economy and force the strait open. This comes after failed peace talks, amid an already severe global energy crunch.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/04/13/donald-trumps-blockade-of-hormuz-is-a-dangerous-gamble)

Key points

Details and context

The war erupted on February 28th when America and Israel struck Iranian targets, shifting from nuclear restraint to hints of regime change; Iran retaliated regionally but held back on a full Hormuz closure, opting for fees that let ships like two Chinese tankers pass on April 11th.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/04/13/donald-trumps-blockade-of-hormuz-is-a-dangerous-gamble)

Trump's counter-blockade mirrors Iran's tactics: if neutral shipping faces hurdles, Iran's cannot proceed freely. Enforcement draws on recent US experience seizing Venezuelan tankers linked to sanctions evasion, proving the navy can handle boardings without needing to stop every vessel.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/04/13/donald-trumps-blockade-of-hormuz-is-a-dangerous-gamble)

The strait carries one-fifth of global oil and gas; partial restrictions have already triggered the worst energy crisis in decades, worse than 1970s shocks or past Gulf wars. A tighter squeeze could push prices to $150 a barrel, hitting importers like China, India, and Europe hardest.[[4]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/13/trump-hormuz-blockade-oil-shock-china-iran-india-vessels-peace-talks.html)

Key quotes

“The military aspect of the plan is ‘absolutely feasible’.”[[1]](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/04/13/donald-trumps-blockade-of-hormuz-is-a-dangerous-gamble)

Mark Montgomery, retired rear-admiral.

Why it matters

A prolonged blockade erodes international maritime law, already strained by Iran's actions, and heightens risks of direct naval clashes in this vital chokepoint. Consumers face steeper fuel and food costs from oil above $100—possibly $150—while businesses in energy-dependent sectors like shipping and fertilisers suffer supply shocks. Watch for Iranian retaliation, Chinese vessel encounters, or diplomatic breakthroughs, though escalation seems more likely than quick resolution.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/04/13/donald-trumps-blockade-of-hormuz-is-a-dangerous-gamble)[[4]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/13/trump-hormuz-blockade-oil-shock-china-iran-india-vessels-peace-talks.html)