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Iran war exposes dollar weakness

Source: ft.com

TL;DR

FT opinion piece argues the Iran war reveals limits in US dollar dominance through sanctions.
Russian banks cut from Swift in 2022 showed early signs of countries seeking dollar alternatives.[[1]](https://www.ft.com/content/ace89a7d-39f1-4901-ab32-fdb8ab2b86aa)
US pressure via sanctions may accelerate de-dollarization efforts by Opec members and others.[[1]](https://www.ft.com/content/ace89a7d-39f1-4901-ab32-fdb8ab2b86aa)

The story at a glance

Daniel Davies writes in the Financial Times that the ongoing Iran war highlights vulnerabilities in the dollar's global power, especially as the US uses sanctions to pressure adversaries. Opec members and sanctioned nations like Russia and Iran are finding ways around dollar-based systems, such as alternative payment networks. This is reported now amid a fragile ceasefire and continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, following US and Israeli strikes on Iran. The dollar has weakened despite typical safe-haven flows during conflict.[[2]](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-04-07/iran-war-has-solidified-the-dollar-s-role-as-reserve-currency)

Key points

Article opens: "As Opec members have long understood, it is not a good idea to give users of your product an incentive to find alternatives."[[1]](https://www.ft.com/content/ace89a7d-39f1-4901-ab32-fdb8ab2b86aa)
First signs appeared in 2022 when Russian banks were sanctioned and disconnected from Swift, prompting workarounds.[[1]](https://www.ft.com/content/ace89a7d-39f1-4901-ab32-fdb8ab2b86aa)
US sanctions give targets reason to escape dollar reliance, as noted in prior FT analysis: "As the US ratchets up pressure, other countries will look to escape dollar power."[[1]](https://www.ft.com/content/ace89a7d-39f1-4901-ab32-fdb8ab2b86aa)
Iran war accelerates this, with reports of non-dollar oil trades, yuan use, and even stablecoins for Hormuz transit fees.
Foreign central banks sold $82bn in US Treasuries since late February amid currency interventions.[[3]](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/rebecca-patterson-1b014592_foreign-central-banks-sell-us-treasuries-activity-7444674069955907586-lGDd)
Dollar fell to four-week low post-ceasefire, defying usual war-time strength.[[4]](https://mcalvany.com/news)

Details and context

The piece is an opinion in FT's Markets Insight section on currencies, tying current Iran conflict events to long-term de-dollarization trends. Sanctions, meant to isolate foes like Iran and Russia, instead push them toward systems like China's CIPS or Russia's SPFS, bypassing Swift and dollar clearing.

Opec producers, reliant on dollar oil trade, face risks from US extraterritorial sanctions that ensnare even non-US firms. Iran's control over Hormuz has led to non-dollar tolls (yuan or crypto), echoing Russia's post-2022 pivot.

This contrasts with short-term dollar gains in crises; here, war exposes structural flaws, as countries diversify reserves and payments amid high oil prices over $100/barrel.

Key quotes

"As Opec members have long understood, it is not a good idea to give users of your product an incentive to find alternatives." — Daniel Davies, FT[[1]](https://www.ft.com/content/ace89a7d-39f1-4901-ab32-fdb8ab2b86aa)

Why it matters

US financial sanctions lose bite if targets build dollar alternatives, weakening a key foreign policy tool. Investors face higher volatility in currencies and Treasuries, while businesses in energy trade navigate non-dollar payments and sanctions risks. Watch Opec+ responses to Hormuz terms and any escalation in US sanctions, though full de-dollarization remains gradual.[[1]](https://www.ft.com/content/ace89a7d-39f1-4901-ab32-fdb8ab2b86aa)