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Energy Transition's New Strait of Hormuz

Source: project-syndicate.org

TL;DR

Clean energy transition shifts vulnerabilities from oil chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz to mineral processing and grids.
Top three countries hold 86% market share in mineral refining as of 2024, with China dominating key inputs through 2035.
Governments must build industrial capacity, standards, and grids amid rivalries to achieve true energy security.[[1]](https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/clean-energy-transition-is-creating-new-strategic-vulnerabilities-by-dianne-araral-and-eduardo-araral-2026-04)[[2]](https://www.eco-business.com/opinion/the-energy-transition-has-its-own-strait-of-hormuz/)[[3]](https://logos-pres.md/en/news/the-energy-transition-has-its-own-strait-of-hormuz)

The story at a glance

Dianne Araral and Eduardo Araral argue in Project Syndicate that the shift to renewables creates new strategic risks in mineral supply chains, standards, and power grids. This comes amid the recent Iran war, which disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and prompted global reassessments of energy strategies. The piece, dated April 3, 2026, from Singapore, warns that geopolitics will persist despite less reliance on fossil fuels.[[1]](https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/clean-energy-transition-is-creating-new-strategic-vulnerabilities-by-dianne-araral-and-eduardo-araral-2026-04)[[2]](https://www.eco-business.com/opinion/the-energy-transition-has-its-own-strait-of-hormuz/)

Key points

In 2025, 34% of global crude oil and one-fifth of LNG exports passed through the Strait of Hormuz, with China and India taking 44% of the oil flow.[[2]](https://www.eco-business.com/opinion/the-energy-transition-has-its-own-strait-of-hormuz/)
Mineral refining concentration rose to 86% market share for top three countries by 2024 (Indonesia for nickel, China for cobalt, graphite, rare earths); China projected at over 60% refined lithium/cobalt and 80% graphite/rare earths by 2035.[[2]](https://www.eco-business.com/opinion/the-energy-transition-has-its-own-strait-of-hormuz/)
Demand surged in 2024: lithium up nearly 30%, others 6-8%; bottlenecks hit batteries, EVs, wind turbines, grid gear when exports restricted.[[2]](https://www.eco-business.com/opinion/the-energy-transition-has-its-own-strait-of-hormuz/)
US responses include Forum on Geostrategic Resource Engagement, Japan mineral plan, new trade bloc; but mutual export controls on tech/equipment fragment chains.[[2]](https://www.eco-business.com/opinion/the-energy-transition-has-its-own-strait-of-hormuz/)
Lack of common standards blocks scaling: batteries/wind turbines face multi-country rules on certification, finance, local content.[[2]](https://www.eco-business.com/opinion/the-energy-transition-has-its-own-strait-of-hormuz/)
Grid investment must rise 50% to $600bn/year by 2030 for climate goals but has stagnated; in developing economies outside China, it declined.[[2]](https://www.eco-business.com/opinion/the-energy-transition-has-its-own-strait-of-hormuz/)
Europe: half transmission lines over 40 years old, needs $2tn upgrades by mid-century; EU off-track for 15% cross-border generation by 2030; ASEAN Power Grid slow, half of 18 projects done.[[1]](https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/clean-energy-transition-is-creating-new-strategic-vulnerabilities-by-dianne-araral-and-eduardo-araral-2026-04)[[2]](https://www.eco-business.com/opinion/the-energy-transition-has-its-own-strait-of-hormuz/)

Details and context

The Iran war highlighted oil reliance on chokepoints, pushing diversification, but authors stress renewables trade fossil vulnerabilities for others in processing (not just mining) and infrastructure. Refining needs huge capital, tech, and time—China's edge creates a high bar for rivals building alternatives.[[2]](https://www.eco-business.com/opinion/the-energy-transition-has-its-own-strait-of-hormuz/)

Fragmented standards and geopolitics turn coordination tools into weapons: subsidies, certifications favor locals, hurting global scaling especially in middle-income countries. Grids lag because permitting, costs, and politics clash—Europe's delays show even integrated blocs struggle with local resistance and aging assets.[[2]](https://www.eco-business.com/opinion/the-energy-transition-has-its-own-strait-of-hormuz/)

ASEAN's grid aims for resilience via trade but lacks standards, pricing, trust across borders. True resilience means new capacities over oil fallback, per authors.[[4]](https://www.facebook.com/projectsyndicate/posts/true-energy-resilience-requires-developing-new-industrial-capacities-and-stronge/1394816282689007)

Key quotes

"The clean-energy transition is often framed as a way to escape the strategic chokepoints and maritime vulnerabilities that have long defined the fossil-fuel industry. But a system built on renewables introduces new risks, as critical bottlenecks shift to refining, processing, and mineral-supply chains."[[1]](https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/clean-energy-transition-is-creating-new-strategic-vulnerabilities-by-dianne-araral-and-eduardo-araral-2026-04)

"True energy resilience requires developing new industrial capacities and stronger grids, not doubling down on oil."[[4]](https://www.facebook.com/projectsyndicate/posts/true-energy-resilience-requires-developing-new-industrial-capacities-and-stronge/1394816282689007)

Why it matters

Renewables reduce oil leverage but expose economies to mineral dominance, grid failures, and rivalries that slow clean tech rollout. For businesses and investors, this means higher costs for diversification, supply risks in EVs/batteries, and policy shifts toward subsidies/alliances. Watch US-China controls, ASEAN/EU grid progress, and mineral deals, though timelines stretch years amid tensions.[[2]](https://www.eco-business.com/opinion/the-energy-transition-has-its-own-strait-of-hormuz/)