Rival Iranian factions risk US truce

TL;DR

Hormuz Whiplash: Recent days saw conflicting announcements on the Strait of Hormuz opening and closing amid US-Iran tensions.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/04/19/which-iran-is-america-dealing-with)
IRGC Criticism: IRGC-linked outlets criticised Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi for not mentioning conditions in his opening confirmation.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/04/19/which-iran-is-america-dealing-with)[[2]](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604172614)
Islamabad Talks: Trump announced a US delegation will return to Pakistan for negotiations, threatening Iran's civilian infrastructure if they fail.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/04/19/which-iran-is-america-dealing-with)[[3]](https://apnews.com/article/us-iran-war-israel-hormuz-19-april-2026-0a637f98d588930f195f61cffe07d4f3)

The story at a glance

The article describes erratic signals from Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, exemplified by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's confirmation of its opening on April 17th, followed by quick criticism from Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) outlets and its re-closure with vessels fired upon. President Donald Trump mocked the reversal, citing America's blockade on Iranian ships, but announced on April 19th that a US delegation would resume talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, while repeating bombing threats. This comes amid a fragile ceasefire in an ongoing US-Iran war that began in late February 2026, following US and Israeli strikes that killed Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/04/19/which-iran-is-america-dealing-with)[[4]](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/03/01/with-the-supreme-leader-dead-power-in-iran-hangs-in-the-balance)

Key points

On April 17th, Trump announced the Strait of Hormuz open to traffic; Araghchi confirmed it, but IRGC-linked media criticised him for omitting conditions.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/04/19/which-iran-is-america-dealing-with)
The next day, an Iranian military spokesman said the strait was closed again, with fire directed at several vessels attempting passage.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/04/19/which-iran-is-america-dealing-with)
Trump responded by mocking Iran, noting America's blockade already bars Iranian ships.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/04/19/which-iran-is-america-dealing-with)
On April 19th, Trump stated a US team would return to Islamabad for talks with Iranians.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/04/19/which-iran-is-america-dealing-with)
Trump repeated threats to bomb Iran's civilian infrastructure unless negotiations succeed.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/04/19/which-iran-is-america-dealing-with)
The subtitle flags rivalries in Iranian leadership—such as between Araghchi and IRGC—as a risk to truce efforts ahead of resumed talks.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/04/19/which-iran-is-america-dealing-with)

Details and context

The Strait of Hormuz, vital for global oil flows, has been a flashpoint since Iran reportedly blocked it earlier in the war, prompting US countermeasures including a blockade on Iranian vessels. Araghchi's announcement aligned with a ceasefire in Lebanon but required ships to follow Iranian-coordinated routes, drawing hardliner ire for appearing too conciliatory and allowing Trump to claim gains.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/04/19/which-iran-is-america-dealing-with)[[5]](https://apnews.com/article/us-iran-war-lebanon-israel-talks-pakistan-hormuz-17-april-2026-4bd5a29af608ecbd72356559b3c55d67)

Talks in Islamabad, hosted by Pakistan, build on prior rounds involving US figures like JD Vance and Iranian officials including Araghchi; Pakistan has mediated phone calls to bridge gaps.[[3]](https://apnews.com/article/us-iran-war-israel-hormuz-19-april-2026-0a637f98d588930f195f61cffe07d4f3)

Post-Khamenei power struggles have amplified divides, with IRGC asserting influence over foreign policy and military actions like Hormuz control, complicating any unified negotiating stance.[[2]](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604172614)[[6]](https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-evening-special-report-april-17-2026)

Key quotes

Trump, mocking Iran's re-closure: "reminding the world that America’s own blockade already ensured it remained closed to Iranian ships."[[1]](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/04/19/which-iran-is-america-dealing-with)

Why it matters

Internal Iranian rivalries, like those between diplomats and the IRGC, make it unclear which faction America is truly negotiating with, risking stalled truces and renewed fighting in a war that has already killed top leaders and disrupted global energy. For businesses and consumers, persistent Hormuz uncertainty sustains high oil prices and supply risks; investors face volatility in energy markets and defence stocks. Watch whether Iran confirms the Islamabad talks and if the ceasefire holds past its expiry, though leadership fractures could derail progress either way.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/04/19/which-iran-is-america-dealing-with)