Historic post-split records show title drops likely
Source: scottishfootball.info
TL;DR
- Article analyzes 24 seasons of post-split results in Scottish top-flight football since 2000/01 to assess teams' form in final fixtures.
- Celtic and Aberdeen are the only teams with over 50% win records post-split; Hearts have the worst at 47% losses over 22 seasons.
- History shows undefeated post-split runs are rare, so title contenders are likely to drop points in remaining games.
The story at a glance
The piece reviews historic post-split performance across 24 seasons of Scottish Premiership football, highlighting win percentages for 19 teams. It covers teams like Celtic, Aberdeen, Inverness, and Hearts, with tables ranking records by win rate. This comes ahead of the current season's split, amid a tight three-way title race, to show patterns in end-of-season form.
Key points
- Covers 24 post-split editions since 2000/01 (COVID season excluded); Celtic, Aberdeen, Motherwell in every one, Gretna just once.
- Celtic and Aberdeen top the all-time win percentage table at over 50%; Inverness third-best despite fewer seasons.
- Hearts worst record: 33 wins from 110 games over 22 seasons, with 52 losses (47% defeat rate).
- Undefeated post-split runs rare: only six 5-0-0 records and 14 of 4-1-0 in 24 seasons.
- For relegation playoff spots, Kilmarnock, Aberdeen, St Mirren have similar records; Motherwell's 36% win rate beats Hibs' 29%.
- In title races, all contenders typically drop points based on past data.
Details and context
Post-split fixtures mean five extra games after 33 matches, split into top and bottom six groups. This format, introduced in 2000/01, aims to balance competition but historic data shows consistent performers like Celtic and Aberdeen rarely falter late.
Inverness stand out with strong relative form (21 losses in 60 games over 12 seasons), while Hearts' poor record raises concerns for fans. Motherwell edges Hibs historically in bottom-six scraps.
The analysis ties into the current tight race, noting maximum points available but predicting drops given rarity of perfection.
Why it matters
Historic patterns reveal why late-season predictability is low in Scottish football, affecting title odds and survival fights. Fans and bettors can use win rates to gauge realistic expectations for their teams in the final five games. Watch post-split results closely, as even leaders often stumble based on 24 seasons of data.