The coming global food crisis

TL;DR

War in the Gulf disrupts fertiliser exports from Gulf states through the Strait of Hormuz.
Gulf states supply half of global urea exports and a third of seaborne fertiliser trade.[[1]](https://www.ft.com/content/36343e24-b06f-434d-a7e5-6046e7bcf3df)[[2]](https://www.eliamep.gr/en/the-bill-will-come-due-the-short-medium-and-long-term-consequences-of-the-iran-war)
Prolonged crisis could raise fertiliser prices 15-20% and trigger widespread food shortages.[[3]](https://nuffoodsspectrum.asia/2026/04/01/fao-chief-economist-warns-of-severe-global-food-security-risks-from-disruption-to-strait-of-hormuz-trade-corridor.html)

The story at a glance

The Financial Times article warns of an emerging global food crisis due to the war involving Iran, which has closed the Strait of Hormuz and halted fertiliser shipments from Gulf states like Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Gulf producers supply critical inputs such as urea, ammonia and sulphur to farmers worldwide, and the shutdown comes at a key planting time. This is reported now amid ongoing conflict escalation and rising commodity prices.

Key points

Gulf states hold central roles in global fertiliser markets, exporting large volumes of urea (up to 49% of traded supply), ammonia (25-30%) and sulphur (half of global trade).[[2]](https://www.eliamep.gr/en/the-bill-will-come-due-the-short-medium-and-long-term-consequences-of-the-iran-war)[[4]](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/longer-trump-war-drags-worse-063000968.html)
One-third of global seaborne fertiliser trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, now blocked, cutting supplies during northern hemisphere spring planting.[[5]](https://time.com/article/2026/04/03/gulf-war-food-crisis-asia-africa-hormuz-transit-deal-)
UN FAO warns fertiliser prices could average 15-20% higher in early 2026 if disruptions persist, with urea already up 19-40% in places.[[3]](https://nuffoodsspectrum.asia/2026/04/01/fao-chief-economist-warns-of-severe-global-food-security-risks-from-disruption-to-strait-of-hormuz-trade-corridor.html)[[6]](https://www.potatopro.com/news/2026/iran-war-threatens-global-food-security-gulf-fertiliser-supply-crisis-deepens)
Top importers like India (over 40% urea from Gulf), Brazil, US and sub-Saharan Africa (25-35% supply) face acute risks to crop yields.[[2]](https://www.eliamep.gr/en/the-bill-will-come-due-the-short-medium-and-long-term-consequences-of-the-iran-war)
World Food Programme projects 45 million more people could face acute food insecurity if conflict lasts into summer and oil stays above $100/barrel.[[5]](https://time.com/article/2026/04/03/gulf-war-food-crisis-asia-africa-hormuz-transit-deal-)
China, Russia and Turkey have added export curbs on fertiliser, worsening the near-term crunch.

Details and context

The Gulf's dominance stems from abundant natural gas, used to produce nitrogen fertilisers like urea and ammonia. Sulphur, a gas byproduct, is vital for phosphate processing. Disruptions hit just as farmers in the US, India and Europe need inputs for corn, wheat and rice—modest cuts in use can slash yields sharply, especially in low-application regions like Africa.[[7]](https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/03/fertilizer-iran-hormuz-food-crisis)

This echoes the 2022 Ukraine war shock but compounds it: Gulf closure blocks 45% of traded nitrogen at peak demand, while high energy costs inflate farming and transport further. Poor nations bear the brunt first, as seen in past crises like Sri Lanka's 2021 fertiliser ban that halved rice output.[[5]](https://time.com/article/2026/04/03/gulf-war-food-crisis-asia-africa-hormuz-transit-deal-)

Global stocks may buffer short disruptions (under a month), but longer ones risk 2026-27 harvest failures and export bans.

Key quotes

"The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that, if the crisis persists, global fertiliser prices could average 15 to 20 per cent higher."[[1]](https://www.ft.com/content/36343e24-b06f-434d-a7e5-6046e7bcf3df) (Financial Times snippet)
"Farmers are facing a dual cost shock: they have more expensive fertilisers alongside rising fuel costs affecting the entire agricultural value chain." — Máximo Torero, FAO chief economist.[[3]](https://nuffoodsspectrum.asia/2026/04/01/fao-chief-economist-warns-of-severe-global-food-security-risks-from-disruption-to-strait-of-hormuz-trade-corridor.html)

Why it matters

A prolonged Gulf war risks slashing global crop yields and igniting food inflation worse than 2022 levels, hitting import-dependent poor countries hardest. Farmers and consumers face higher costs now, while businesses in agribusiness and food face supply squeezes and investors see volatility in commodities. Watch Strait reopening, FAO price updates and planting reports in India/US, though impacts may lag until autumn harvests.