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Is the BoJ ready to take Japan back to reality?

Source: ft.com

TL;DR

FT opinion piece questions if Bank of Japan can push rates to 1 per cent and beyond amid normalisation drive.
March opinions summary shows board intent to raise rates if economy and prices meet outlook, despite Middle East oil risks.[[1]](https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/opinion_2026/opi260319.pdf)
Signals commitment to ending ultra-loose policy, but cautious on war's impact.

The story at a glance

Leo Lewis argues in the Financial Times that the Bank of Japan, after holding rates at 0.75 per cent in March, shows growing resolve to normalise policy fully. This comes as its March opinions summary reveals most board members favour further hikes if conditions hold, even with oil price surges from Middle East tensions. The piece is timed ahead of the April 27-28 policy meeting, where markets see high odds of a hike.[[2]](https://www.ft.com/content/200d5b7b-bd73-414e-b6d5-e2e449d46f13?syn-25a6b1a6=1)[[1]](https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/opinion_2026/opi260319.pdf)

Japan's economy recovered moderately last quarter, with wage gains at large firms supporting inflation near 2 per cent.

Key points

BoJ policy rate steady at 0.75 per cent since December 2025 hike, highest in 30 years; real rates still deeply negative and accommodative.[[1]](https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/opinion_2026/opi260319.pdf)
March 18-19 meeting: 8-1 vote to hold; dissenter Hajime Takata pushed for 1 per cent; baseline outlook unchanged despite Middle East risks.[[1]](https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/opinion_2026/opi260319.pdf)[[3]](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/boj-debated-need-more-rate-hikes-march-meeting-summary-shows-2026-03-30)
Board views: continue hikes if wages/prices align with projections; watch small firms' wages, oil spillovers, yen weakness.
Inflation: underlying CPI around 1.5 per cent, heading to 2 per cent; oil shock could push higher via imports, LNG, second-round effects.[[1]](https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/opinion_2026/opi260319.pdf)
Hawkish notes: raise "without hesitation" absent downturn; consider pace/size based on data, conflict evolution; avoid falling behind curve.
Markets price ~70 per cent chance of April hike to 1 per cent; ex-officials split on timing amid war uncertainty.[[4]](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/boj-raise-rates-by-july-mounting-price-pressure-ex-board-member-says-2026-04-07)

Details and context

The article reflects on BoJ's shift from decades of ultra-easy policy—negative rates, yield curve control—toward normalisation, accelerated by wage-price momentum post-shunto negotiations. Large firms granted near-full union demands, likely spreading to smaller ones, bolstering the virtuous cycle BoJ seeks for sustainable 2 per cent inflation.[[1]](https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/opinion_2026/opi260319.pdf)

Middle East war complicates this: crude surges hit Japan hard as a top importer, risking stagflation via higher energy/LNG costs, worse terms of trade, profit squeezes. Board sees it as a "risk scenario" not yet derailing baseline, but flags potential for stronger inflation if yen weakens further. Past shocks (e.g., Ukraine) inform caution on second-round effects.

Recent communication—hawkish summary, Ueda's post-meeting remarks—keeps April hike alive, though no commitment. This balances growth support against inflation risks, with real rates low enough for flexibility.

Key quotes

"If there are no signs of a significant deterioration in the economic environment or in the wage-setting stance of small and medium-sized firms, the Bank will need to raise the policy interest rate without hesitation." — BoJ board member, March summary.[[1]](https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/opinion_2026/opi260319.pdf)
"Given that real interest rates are at significantly low levels, if the Bank's outlook... will be realized, it is appropriate... to continue to raise the policy interest rate." — Multiple board members.[[1]](https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/opinion_2026/opi260319.pdf)

Why it matters

BoJ normalisation ends Japan's outlier status among majors, potentially stabilising yen and curbing imported inflation but risking growth if timed poorly amid global shocks. Investors and firms face higher borrowing costs; households see real wage gains tested by energy bills. Watch April 28 decision and Ueda presser for hike signals, plus oil prices and spring wage finals, though war evolution adds uncertainty.[[5]](https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm)