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Iran War Risks Prolonged Oil Shock and Economic Chaos

Source: economist.com

Iran vows long-term war of attrition, defying Trump's quick-end promises.
Oil disruptions could spike core inflation to 4.1% by year-end in worst case.
GDP growth may slump below 2% in late 2026, delaying Fed rate cuts.

A brewing war between the US under Trump and Iran threatens massive oil supply shocks, with potential for drawn-out conflict. Top economist Diane Swonk warns of a butterfly effect rippling through inflation, growth, and global markets. This matters because even a short war keeps oil prices high for months, hitting everyday costs and economic stability.