Hormuz closure threatens global harvests

TL;DR

Hormuz Blockade: Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, followed by America's blockade on April 13th, has driven up prices for oil, natural gas and fertiliser.
WFP Projection: The World Food Programme estimates that if the blockage lasts until mid-year, an extra 45m people will face hunger risks beyond the 300m already struggling.
Food Security Threat: Higher fuel and fertiliser costs during spring planting could shrink harvests and raise global food prices.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/international/2026/04/16/millions-will-go-hungry-if-the-strait-of-hormuz-stays-closed)[[2]](https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/millions-will-go-hungry-if-the-strait-of-hormuz-stays-closed-101776354349224.html)

The story at a glance

The Economist warns that the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, compounded by a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian vessels started on April 13th 2026, threatens global food supplies through surging prices for energy and fertiliser. Involved parties include Iran, the United States, and the United Nations' World Food Programme, which highlights the human cost. This analysis comes amid an escalating U.S.-Iran war that began earlier in 2026, with the strait effectively shut since late February.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/international/2026/04/16/millions-will-go-hungry-if-the-strait-of-hormuz-stays-closed)[[3]](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-tightens-control-hormuz-after-us-calls-off-renewed-attacks-2026-04-23)

The strait normally handles about one-fifth of global oil trade, one-fifth of liquefied natural gas, and up to 30% of fertiliser trade.[[4]](https://impact.economist.com/energy-environment/the-clock-is-ticking-this-war-is-already-threatening-the-worlds-food-security)

Key points

Iran's initial closure has spiked prices for oil, natural gas and fertiliser; the U.S. response on April 13th halted the few Iranian-allowed passages, worsening shortages.
Perhaps 30% of the world's fertiliser trade passes through the strait, making the timing critical for Northern Hemisphere spring planting.[[5]](https://www.threads.com/@theeconomist/post/DXOtGkVlF3S/perhaps-of-the-worlds-fertiliser-trade-passes-through-hormuz-the-war-has)
The World Food Programme (WFP), a UN agency, projects an additional 45m people at risk of hunger if blockages persist to mid-2026, atop over 300m already food-insecure.[[2]](https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/millions-will-go-hungry-if-the-strait-of-hormuz-stays-closed-101776354349224.html)
Fertiliser production relies heavily on natural gas; disruptions hit Gulf producers like those in Qatar and Saudi Arabia hardest.
Smaller harvests from reduced fertiliser use and higher fuel costs could lead to elevated food prices worldwide.

Details and context

Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes starting late February 2026, stranding ships and cutting tanker traffic by over 90%. The U.S. then imposed its own blockade targeting Iranian shipping, creating a mutual standoff where Iran allows few passages but the U.S. halts those.[[6]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis)

Fertiliser trade is vulnerable because Gulf states convert abundant natural gas into ammonia, urea and other inputs, with about a third of global volumes transiting the strait. Sulphur for phosphate fertilisers also routes through here. Current high energy prices alone could amplify food insecurity, per UN estimates.[[7]](https://news.un.org/en/interview/2026/04/1167351)

Farmers in import-dependent regions like sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and Latin America face the sharpest impacts during planting season, with no quick stockpiles to bridge gaps.

Key quotes

"The World Food Programme estimates that if the blockage continues until mid-year, an extra 45m lives will be at risk, on top of the more than 300m people who already struggle to feed themselves." — The Economist, citing WFP.[[2]](https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/millions-will-go-hungry-if-the-strait-of-hormuz-stays-closed-101776354349224.html)

Why it matters

Prolonged closure risks a global agrifood shock by choking energy and fertiliser flows critical for crop yields, hitting poorer nations first amid existing hunger levels.[[8]](https://www.reuters.com/world/protracted-hormuz-crisis-could-trigger-agrifood-catastrophe-un-food-agency-says-2026-04-13)

Consumers face higher grocery bills, farmers cut inputs leading to lower output, and businesses in food supply chains see squeezed margins; investors note U.S. fertiliser firms gaining from the squeeze.[[9]](https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/fertilizer-stocks-jump-with-shipments-stuck-at-the-strait-of-hormuz-89cdd8ce)

Watch U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and any UN efforts for humanitarian fertiliser corridors, though mutual blockades make quick resolution uncertain.[[10]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-27/un-creates-task-force-aimed-at-addressing-hormuz-closure)

What changed

Iran kept the strait largely closed to non-Iranian traffic since late February 2026; on April 13th, America started its own blockade, stopping even limited Iranian-permitted vessels.

FAQ

Q: Why does the Strait of Hormuz closure affect fertiliser prices?

A: About 30% of global fertiliser trade passes through the strait from gas-rich Gulf producers; the blockage halts shipments of urea, ammonia and sulphur just before spring planting. Natural gas, key for production, also routes here, shutting plants and spiking costs.[[4]](https://impact.economist.com/energy-environment/the-clock-is-ticking-this-war-is-already-threatening-the-worlds-food-security)

Q: What is the projected hunger impact if the strait stays closed?

A: The World Food Programme says an extra 45 million people could face acute hunger risks by mid-2026 if blockages continue, added to over 300 million already struggling. This stems from projected 15-20% fertiliser price rises and high energy costs.[[2]](https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/millions-will-go-hungry-if-the-strait-of-hormuz-stays-closed-101776354349224.html)

Q: How did the U.S. respond to Iran's strait closure?

A: On April 13th 2026, America imposed a blockade halting the few vessels Iran had allowed through, compounding price surges for oil, gas and fertiliser. Iran calls this a ceasefire violation.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/international/2026/04/16/millions-will-go-hungry-if-the-strait-of-hormuz-stays-closed)

Q: Which regions rely most on strait fertiliser shipments?

A: Importers in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and Latin America depend heavily on Gulf fertilisers transiting the strait; delays now threaten their planting seasons and future harvests.[[11]](https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-fertilizer-exports-farming-3b7c92d58dba0817c3aa8f1db47464b7)

[[1]](https://www.economist.com/international/2026/04/16/millions-will-go-hungry-if-the-strait-of-hormuz-stays-closed)