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Gulf war risks global food shock via fertiliser halt

Source: economist.com

TL;DR

Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has halted most seaborne fertiliser exports from the Gulf amid the third Gulf war.
Urea prices are 70% higher and ammonia 39% pricier than before the war began on February 28th; 1.9m tonnes sit stranded on 41 ships.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/04/07/the-war-in-the-gulf-could-cause-a-global-food-shock?utm_content=ed-picks-image-link-2&etear=nl_today_2&utm_campaign=a.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=4/7/2026&utm_id=2179149)[[2]](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/04/07/the-war-in-the-gulf-could-cause-a-global-food-shock)
Farmers face panic over soaring input costs that could shrink harvests and drive up global food prices.

The story at a glance

The third Gulf war, pitting America and Israel against Iran since late February, has led Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz, stopping nearly all fertiliser shipments from the region. This affects a third of global seaborne fertiliser exports, with prices for key types like urea surging. The article highlights the risk to farmers worldwide and potential food supply disruptions, reported now as the war enters its sixth week.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/04/07/the-war-in-the-gulf-could-cause-a-global-food-shock?utm_content=ed-picks-image-link-2&etear=nl_today_2&utm_campaign=a.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=4/7/2026&utm_id=2179149)

Key points

On March 22nd, the ship Nadab carried 20,000 tonnes of Iranian fertiliser through the strait to South-East Asia, the last of just six such vessels allowed out since the war started—a quarter of the normal volume.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/04/07/the-war-in-the-gulf-could-cause-a-global-food-shock?utm_content=ed-picks-image-link-2&etear=nl_today_2&utm_campaign=a.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=4/7/2026&utm_id=2179149)
Iran has permitted only a trickle of fertiliser ships to exit, stranding nearly 1.9m tonnes on 41 vessels, equal to 12% of 2024's strait fertiliser shipments, according to Madeleine Overgaard of Kpler.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/04/07/the-war-in-the-gulf-could-cause-a-global-food-shock?utm_content=ed-picks-image-link-2&etear=nl_today_2&utm_campaign=a.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=4/7/2026&utm_id=2179149)
Urea, the most used fertiliser, costs around 70% more than pre-war levels; ammonia is up 39% (chart in article).[[1]](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/04/07/the-war-in-the-gulf-could-cause-a-global-food-shock?utm_content=ed-picks-image-link-2&etear=nl_today_2&utm_campaign=a.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=4/7/2026&utm_id=2179149)
The Gulf supplies a third of seaborne fertiliser exports, now mostly halted, compounding fuel price rises from the same blockade.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/04/07/the-war-in-the-gulf-could-cause-a-global-food-shock?utm_content=ed-picks-image-link-2&etear=nl_today_2&utm_campaign=a.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=4/7/2026&utm_id=2179149)
Food commodity markets remain calm so far, but the article warns problems could stack up for farmers as planting seasons near.[[3]](https://www.facebook.com/TheEconomist/posts/the-third-gulf-war-is-worrying-the-worlds-farmers-so-far-markets-for-food-commod/1447560677402448)

Details and context

America and Israel attacked Iran on February 28th, triggering the latest Gulf war and Iran's response: a near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This chokepoint normally handles vast flows of energy and fertiliser, but tanker traffic has fallen over 90% and fertiliser exports have ground to a halt. Nitrogen fertilisers like urea and ammonia, made using natural gas abundant in the Gulf (Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia), dominate the stranded cargoes.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/04/07/the-war-in-the-gulf-could-cause-a-global-food-shock?utm_content=ed-picks-image-link-2&etear=nl_today_2&utm_campaign=a.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=4/7/2026&utm_id=2179149)[[2]](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/04/07/the-war-in-the-gulf-could-cause-a-global-food-shock)

The blockade echoes past disruptions like Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which spiked fertiliser costs and cut yields. Here, the "double shock" of pricier fertiliser and fuel hits farmers directly; UN FAO projections suggest prices 15-20% higher into mid-2026 if unresolved. Major importers like India, Brazil, South-East Asia and East Africa face the sharpest risks, with no big strategic fertiliser reserves to match oil stockpiles.[[4]](https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/fao-chief-economist-warns-of-severe-global-food-security-risks-from-disruption-to-strait-of-hormuz-trade-corridor/en)

Producers inside the Gulf keep loading ships at ports like Jubail to avoid storage overflows, but few dare the strait amid drone and missile threats. Escorts are scarce, and no quick fix exists for the supply gap.[[5]](https://www.kpler.com/blog/fertiliser-loadings-persist-as-vessels-look-to-navigate-the-strait-of-hormuz)

Key quotes

"Nearly 1.9m tonnes of plant nutrients are stuck on board 41 ships that cannot leave the Gulf—equal to 12% of all the fertiliser shipped out of the strait in 2024."

— Madeleine Overgaard of Kpler[[1]](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/04/07/the-war-in-the-gulf-could-cause-a-global-food-shock?utm_content=ed-picks-image-link-2&etear=nl_today_2&utm_campaign=a.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=4/7/2026&utm_id=2179149)

Why it matters

A prolonged blockade threatens lower crop yields worldwide as farmers cut fertiliser use amid costs now 30-70% higher.

Consumers could see food inflation return, hitting importers in Asia and Africa hardest, while businesses like farms and traders face squeezed margins.

Watch if more ships slip through or if production halts force rationing—outcomes hinge on the war's duration, which no one predicts with certainty.[[1]](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/04/07/the-war-in-the-gulf-could-cause-a-global-food-shock?utm_content=ed-picks-image-link-2&etear=nl_today_2&utm_campaign=a.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=4/7/2026&utm_id=2179149)