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Lincoln City's data-driven promotion after 65 years

Source: nytimes.com

TL;DR

Lincoln City secured promotion to the Championship with a 2-1 win over Reading, clinching it five games early on a low budget.
The club uses data, AI, and set pieces to lead League One, backed by American investors including ex-Padres co-owner Ron Fowler and Landon Donovan.
Success shows a sustainable model focused on structure over stars, with challenges ahead in staying up next season.

The story at a glance

Lincoln City earned promotion to English football's second tier after beating Reading 2-1, ending a 65-year absence despite the seventh-lowest budget in League One. Key figures include chairman Ron Fowler, a former San Diego Padres co-owner who took control in December 2025, investors Harvey Jabara and Landon Donovan, and sporting director Jez George. The piece comes now after the April 6, 2026, clincher amid their 23-match unbeaten run. It highlights their data-driven rise from non-League in 2016.

Key points

Lincoln lead League One by 12 points over Cardiff City (one game more played), 19 clear of third-placed Bradford, top in points, goals scored, and fewest conceded on a £5 million budget (seventh-lowest; play-off budgets hit £9-10 million).
American ownership: Fowler holds the largest stake since late 2025; Jabara and Donovan (USMNT record scorer) invest and advise; South African Clive Nates is third-largest shareholder since 2016.
Tactics under manager Michael Skubala emphasize low possession, set pieces (26 of 77 goals, a record rate), long throws, and high pressing; 75-80% win rate when scoring first, leading 52% of match minutes.
Recruitment via Impect data, AI (Python algorithms), and video: signings like £400,000 record buy Ivan Varfolomeev, free agents, and non-League talent; highest wage £3,500/week, small gaps to build team effort; £3 million sold in players over three years.
Infrastructure from 2016-17 FA Cup run (beat Arsenal, Ipswich): £1.3 million training ground; in-house AI from Insight Sport for patterns; lost set-piece coach Scott Fry to Rangers.
No double-digit league goalscorers; bonuses tied to set pieces; style disrupts opponents into Lincoln's game.

Details and context

The club rose from the fifth tier in 2016 under Danny and Nicky Cowley, who delivered an FA Cup giant-killing run and League Two promotion. That funded basics like the training complex, setting up a model like Brentford or Brighton: data over spending, player development for resale, and clear structure.

Wage discipline targets ambitious recruits rather than high earners, fostering collective scoring without stars. Losses like £3 million in 2023-24 underline financial caution; promotion tests if principles scale to Championship survival.

Donovan visits once or twice a season, praising the "sweet" town and team ethos; George stresses "the structure beats every individual."

Key quotes

Landon Donovan: “Just a bunch of people who have contributed throughout. That was the story in the best teams I played in, too.”[[1]](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7167961/2026/04/06/lincoln-city-padres-donovan-championship-promotion/)[[2]](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7167961/2026/04/06/lincoln-city-padres-donovan-championship-promotion)
Jez George: “We are really clear that the structure of the club beats every individual.”[[1]](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7167961/2026/04/06/lincoln-city-padres-donovan-championship-promotion/)
Landon Donovan (laughing): “Arsenal are the Lincoln City of the Premier League!”[[1]](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7167961/2026/04/06/lincoln-city-padres-donovan-championship-promotion/)

Why it matters

American investment and tech tools are reshaping lower-league English football, proving modest budgets can outpace big spenders like Wrexham or Birmingham. Fans and investors see a blueprint for sustainable success without stars or debt, while rivals face pressure to copy data-led recruitment. Watch if Lincoln stay up next season—the real test of their model amid likely squad changes and higher costs.