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Chances rise for super El Niño this year

Source: washingtonpost.com

TL;DR

Updated ECMWF forecast shows rising odds of a super El Niño developing this summer or fall.[[1]](https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/04/06/super-el-nino-chances-increasing-risks)
All 20-plus ensemble members predict moderate or strong El Niño by mid-June, with half projecting Niño3.4 over +2.5°C by October.[[2]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2026/04/07/2026-could-see-a-historic-super-el-nio-heres-why)[[3]](https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/04/a-powerhouse-el-nino-event-appears-to-be-brewing-for-2026-27)
NOAA sees 62% chance of El Niño by June-August, persisting into 2027 with risks of heat, drought, floods, and altered storms.[[4]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

The story at a glance

The Washington Post reports on a new ECMWF forecast raising chances for a super El Niño this year, based on rapid Pacific warming after La Niña. Meteorologist Ben Noll highlights the model's strong signal, building on March predictions. This comes amid NOAA's El Niño Watch as neutral conditions take hold soon.

Key points

ECMWF's April outlook shows every ensemble member forecasting at least moderate El Niño by mid-June, with roughly half reaching super levels (+2.5°C Niño3.4 anomaly) by October.[[3]](https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/04/a-powerhouse-el-nino-event-appears-to-be-brewing-for-2026-27)
NOAA's March update gives 62% odds for El Niño emerging June-August 2026 and lasting through year-end, with 1-in-3 chance of strong event (≥+1.5°C) by October-December.[[4]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)
Super El Niño could rival past events like 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16, potentially the strongest in a century due to baseline warming.[[1]](https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/04/06/super-el-nino-chances-increasing-risks)
Effects may extend into 2027, amplifying global heat likely to record levels.[[1]](https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/04/06/super-el-nino-chances-increasing-risks)

Details and context

A super El Niño features Niño3.4 sea surface temperatures over +2°C above average, though no formal definition exists; it intensifies typical El Niño effects from warmer equatorial Pacific waters shifting atmospheric patterns.-[[3]](https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/04/a-powerhouse-el-nino-event-appears-to-be-brewing-for-2026-27)

Recent triplet cyclones in the West Pacific may boost odds by injecting heat.-[[5]](https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/04/03/rare-triplet-cyclones-explained-el-nino)
Current La Niña fades to neutral (55% through May-July), supported by subsurface ocean heat buildup despite spring forecast challenges.[[4]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

Key quotes

"The March ENSO outlook shows a 17 percent chance of at least a 'strong' event during the August-October 2026 time frame. This likelihood increases to 33 percent by the October-December time frame." – Michelle L'Heureux, NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO team lead[[6]](https://www.newsweek.com/6-ways-super-el-nino-could-impact-2026-weather-11791986)

Why it matters

A super El Niño risks extreme regional weather like droughts in Indonesia and the Caribbean, floods in Peru, hot summers across the Western U.S., Africa, Europe, and India, plus more Pacific cyclones and fewer Atlantic hurricanes.

This could mean hotter global temperatures possibly setting records in 2026 or 2027, disrupting agriculture, water supplies, and storm preparation for households and businesses.

Watch upcoming NOAA and ECMWF updates in May-June, as forecasts remain uncertain this far out.