War in Iran risks global food crisis via fertiliser shortages

TL;DR

War in Iran disrupts Strait of Hormuz, halting fertiliser shipments and driving up global prices.
FAO warns fertiliser prices could average 15-20% higher in first half of 2026 if crisis persists.
Poorest countries face hunger or famine risks from lower crop yields and sustained high food costs.

The story at a glance

Adam Hanieh argues in the Financial Times that the war in Iran threatens a global food crisis by blocking fertiliser exports through the Strait of Hormuz, where Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE supply key inputs such as urea and ammonia. This comes amid recent attacks on Gulf facilities and shipping halts, hitting northern hemisphere planting seasons. The piece appears as a Weekend Essay on April 18, 2026, as disruptions enter their second month.

Key points

Gulf region handles nearly half of global sulfur trade and a third of fertiliser exports, including 30% of urea, via Hormuz strait.[[1]](https://www.ft.com/content/36343e24-b06f-434d-a7e5-6046e7bcf3df)[[2]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis)
Production halted at plants in Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Iran; Middle East urea prices up 19-70% recently.
FAO chief economist Maximo Torero projects global fertiliser prices 15-20% above normal through mid-2026 if blockade continues, plus fuel cost shocks.[[3]](https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/fao-chief-economist-warns-of-severe-global-food-security-risks-from-disruption-to-strait-of-hormuz-trade-corridor/en)
Fertiliser makes up 15-20% of crop production costs; shortages could cut yields in wheat, corn and rice, raising food prices.
Asia, Africa and Latin America most exposed as major importers; US and Europe face higher input costs too.
Hanieh urges immediate aid and policy action to protect vulnerable farmers from long-term effects.

Details and context

The war has closed the Strait of Hormuz to most commercial traffic since late February 2026, choking 20-30% of traded fertilisers alongside oil and gas. Gulf producers drew investment over two decades due to cheap natural gas for nitrogen fertilisers like urea and ammonia. Attacks on sites like Qatar's Ras Laffan refinery worsened shortages.

Poorer nations in the global south, already strained by prior shocks like the Ukraine war, risk the worst outcomes as spring planting nears without affordable inputs. Even if shipping resumes soon, FAO says price recovery will be slow and uneven due to inelastic markets. Hanieh highlights Gulf states' overlooked centrality in food commodity chains beyond oil.

Key quotes

"Hunger and even famine are foreseeable consequences of the war on Iran. Now the world must act to shield the poorest from effects that will continue long after the fighting stops."[[1]](https://www.ft.com/content/36343e24-b06f-434d-a7e5-6046e7bcf3df)

– Adam Hanieh, director of the SOAS Middle East Institute

Why it matters

The stakes involve global food security, with potential yield drops amplifying inflation and instability in import-dependent regions. Farmers worldwide face 15-20% higher costs now, passing through to consumers via pricier staples; investors in agribusiness and commodities should note prolonged volatility. Watch Hormuz shipping resumption, FAO updates on prices and northern hemisphere harvest reports, though full impacts may not show until late 2026.