Thursday's key analyst calls on six stocks

TL;DR

Rogers Capex Cut: RBC raised Rogers Communications target to $63 from $61 on lower capital spending plans boosting free cash flow.[[1]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-305/)
Multiple Firms Act: TD upgraded Rogers to buy at $60; National Bank lifted Capital Power to top pick with $82 target.[[1]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-305/)
Mixed Views Emerge: Upgrades on telecom and energy offset by Metro target cuts amid competition and strike concerns.[[1]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-305/)

The story at a glance

Inside the Market rounds up Thursday's key analyst calls on Canadian stocks, led by Rogers Communications after it cut capital spending to $2.5-$2.7 billion from prior plans. Firms including RBC Dominion Securities, TD Securities, and Desjardins adjusted targets and ratings on Rogers, Metro, Capital Power, Lycos Energy, Restaurant Brands International, and TMX Group. This reflects reactions to recent earnings, operational updates, and acquisitions; the report by David Leeder appeared today amid ongoing earnings season.[[1]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-305/)

Key points

RBC's Drew McReynolds raised Rogers target to $63 (outperform), citing 30-per-cent capex drop, free cash flow rising to $4.1-$4.3 billion, and deleveraging potential; Street average $57.80.[[1]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-305/)
TD's Vince Valentini upgraded Rogers to buy ($60 target); Desjardins held at $59; National Bank raised to $62 (outperform).[[1]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-305/)
National Bank's Vishal Shreedhar cut Metro target to $105 (sector perform) on softer traffic despite 1.8-per-cent food same-store sales growth and $20-million strike hit; Desjardins to $97 (hold).[[1]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-305/)
Desjardins' Brent Stadler upgraded Capital Power to top pick ($82 target) ahead of Q1 results, expecting EBITDA beat from acquisitions.[[1]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-305/)
National Bank's Dan Payne upgraded Lycos Energy to outperform ($3 target) on strong well results and production growth plans to 2,500-3,000 boe/d.[[1]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-305/)
Citi's Jon Tower raised Restaurant Brands EPS forecasts and target to US$88 (neutral), crediting Burger King sales momentum; RBC raised TMX to $65 (outperform) on Cboe acquisition.[[1]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-305/)

Details and context

Rogers's capex reduction to 12-per-cent intensity stems from regulatory hurdles and industry maturity, freeing $800 million annually for debt repayment and supporting a low dividend payout under 30 per cent of free cash flow. Analysts see upside from potential minority stakes in sports/media assets valuing over $20 billion.[[1]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-305/)

Metro faces heightened competition and price sensitivity, with pharmacy growth and discount store expansion (12 in fiscal 2026) as offsets, though a Quebec strike will hit Q3 EBITDA by $20 million.[[1]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-305/)

Capital Power anticipates catalysts like data-centre deals and U.S. recontracting; Lycos validates its drilling thesis with low-cost Mannville wells; Restaurant Brands targets 8-per-cent income growth through 2028 amid Burger King U.S. traffic gains.[[1]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-305/)

Key quotes

"Rogers recalibrating its capital expenditure plans [is] a welcome surprise." — RBC Dominion Securities' Drew McReynolds on Rogers.[[1]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-305/)

"Views current levels as attractive entry point ahead of material catalysts." — Desjardins Securities' Brent Stadler on Capital Power.[[1]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-305/)

Why it matters

Analyst updates signal investor sentiment shifts on cash flow, growth, and risks in telecom, retail, energy, and exchanges amid earnings season. Investors tracking these stocks gain targets and rationales for positioning, like Rogers deleveraging or Metro competition pressures. Watch upcoming Q1 results, such as Capital Power's on April 29, and any follow-on calls for confirmation.[[1]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-305/)

What changed

Rogers previously guided capex at $3.3-$3.5 billion; it now plans $2.5-$2.7 billion with free cash flow rising to $4.1-$4.3 billion from $3.3-$3.5 billion. Multiple analysts raised targets and some ratings in response. Changes announced recently, prompting Thursday's actions.[[1]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-305/)

FAQ

Q: Why did analysts raise Rogers targets?

A: Rogers cut capex to $2.5-$2.7 billion from higher prior guidance, boosting free cash flow to $4.1-$4.3 billion and enabling deleveraging. RBC cited 30-per-cent year-over-year decline and low dividend payout; TD upgraded to buy. Street average target is $57.80.[[1]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-305/)

Q: What drove Metro target cuts?

A: Food same-store sales grew 1.8 per cent but traffic lagged, amid competition and price sensitivity; Quebec strike to hit Q3 EBITDA by $20 million. National Bank cut 2026 EPS by 7 cents; Desjardins sees limited visibility. Street average $105.50.[[1]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-305/)

Q: How did Capital Power earn a top pick upgrade?

A: Desjardins expects Q1 EBITDA of $400 million ahead of consensus, from acquisitions offsetting lower generation. Catalysts include 500MW data-centre deals and M&A. Target $82 versus Street $76.60.[[1]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-305/)

Q: What validated Lycos Energy upgrade?

A: First Mannville well hit 140 barrels per day IP30, now 160 bbl/d, with $1.5-million costs; plans $35-40 million budget for production doubling to 2,500-3,000 boe/d exit. National Bank raised target to $3 from $2.50.[[1]](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-305/)