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Crude Awakening Hits Global Markets Amid Trump Policies

Source: barrons.com

TL;DR

Barron's analysis examines how Trump's policies and Iran tensions now dominate markets over initial tariff fears.
One year after April 2, 2025 "Liberation Day" tariffs, crude oil prices exceed $100 amid U.S.-Iran conflict, pushing inflation higher.[[1]](https://stockanalysis.com/news)[[2]](https://www.barrons.com/topics/markets?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqcNKeJXq6gnxTJdXZD_IszpwCoVbAawC5Q8mOHB5z1YTrBEvK8sHOJX&gaa_sig=cMLqOPKIOLRhFxWmQY59yndSyvxOkeBD7jd3W5nS7R8Yx0zd8JhGssCsapxiWk0xvLm6VEnEYG1_u030buofQQ%3D%3D&gaa_ts=69d37c43)
U.S. economy shows resilience to tariffs, but global growth forecasts fall; Latin American bonds offer opportunities.[[3]](https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-iran-stock-market-tariffs-nato-canada-mexico-e126dd0b?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqeWCTL9Q3gYrej5dMnAxhRh1jFFSWF4xGwsoE60V89UCZThTW_MaeWr&gaa_sig=GoNihaydvEiq4MgSWoTrYDcHB5Y4jj6TN0JwSS__Re0hrP_d9LDuZp79VwIlz0SDe65GLkork_238rcDp7O1Tw%3D%3D&gaa_ts=69d37c40)

The story at a glance

Barron's Sabrina Escobar reviews market shifts one year after President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement on April 2, 2025, amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, NATO strains, and USMCA expiration talks with Canada and Mexico. Tariff worries have faded as oil-driven inflation from the Iran conflict takes center stage. The piece comes now to mark the tariff anniversary while oil prices stay elevated.[[4]](https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-iran-stock-market-tariffs-nato-canada-mexico-e126dd0b?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfxdQdWRpuSm33z1km2XKzwCKPvvwdb850sE_VUMI82grPsubpzWK3Q&gaa_sig=ZFnUuzyIpKSEKf6g4uSUhUBc5jaNmP4ObB5IrG2gAxIrFllNsB_A70yosGdzto9FjcNGPdKWJTbhjv0iL8bF_w%3D%3D&gaa_ts=69d37c40)[[5]](https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-iran-stock-market-tariffs-nato-canada-mexico-e126dd0b?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfvRo0fJvjUSrr67BsrI-4WsdT6ux1V2Eish3k1EbT_Z_b9VJDUUtoF&gaa_sig=PT31k7Mgw5xLy2lui5wiHf4POLIfz8rzsOv325D4ckWSNr4nx1tXfFNznz1IhdBpUTw2BX9Y5UinNKAm8pZkkw%3D%3D&gaa_ts=69d37c43)

Key points

One year post-Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff blitz—country-specific rates up to 50% initially, later paused for most at 10% except China—markets look different; tariff fears displaced by Iran war risks.[[4]](https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-iran-stock-market-tariffs-nato-canada-mexico-e126dd0b?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfxdQdWRpuSm33z1km2XKzwCKPvvwdb850sE_VUMI82grPsubpzWK3Q&gaa_sig=ZFnUuzyIpKSEKf6g4uSUhUBc5jaNmP4ObB5IrG2gAxIrFllNsB_A70yosGdzto9FjcNGPdKWJTbhjv0iL8bF_w%3D%3D&gaa_ts=69d37c40)[[6]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs)
Crude oil above $100/barrel from U.S.-Iran escalation, including threats over Strait of Hormuz and airstrikes; global growth estimates falling, inflation rising slowly.[[2]](https://www.barrons.com/topics/markets?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqcNKeJXq6gnxTJdXZD_IszpwCoVbAawC5Q8mOHB5z1YTrBEvK8sHOJX&gaa_sig=cMLqOPKIOLRhFxWmQY59yndSyvxOkeBD7jd3W5nS7R8Yx0zd8JhGssCsapxiWk0xvLm6VEnEYG1_u030buofQQ%3D%3D&gaa_ts=69d37c43)
U.S. proves resilient: S&P 500 earnings hold up, tariffs deemed manageable per strategist Bianco; initial market crash recovered after pauses.[[3]](https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-iran-stock-market-tariffs-nato-canada-mexico-e126dd0b?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqeWCTL9Q3gYrej5dMnAxhRh1jFFSWF4xGwsoE60V89UCZThTW_MaeWr&gaa_sig=GoNihaydvEiq4MgSWoTrYDcHB5Y4jj6TN0JwSS__Re0hrP_d9LDuZp79VwIlz0SDe65GLkork_238rcDp7O1Tw%3D%3D&gaa_ts=69d37c40)
Trump ramps NATO criticism, demands higher spending; USMCA expires July 2026, administration pushes demands on Mexico access and Canada ties.[[7]](https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-iran-stock-market-tariffs-nato-canada-mexico-e126dd0b?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfMvKckeN62zT2LPWfi-0cOVNBzrf8SrtUKtGu1XUGAkeEjsihe_3G4&gaa_sig=tbbgKzefyoHotbqV7QIJZB4Y-sDcLSSGMISQBjHLzc_f7ns1m2iCym1bBbkboqOoolGKO0V9zuCYded_JdLFag%3D%3D&gaa_ts=69d37c43)
Latin American bonds highlighted as top bets amid energy shock and trade flux.[[8]](https://www.barrons.com/topics/markets?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqdRd9UDPuG2F2iVUSJZyxQ6WVe2OWZ6G_eDYAmxBTYW7nZcFV6IyXTi&gaa_sig=3VTUg2DKkM7Q5Q3RhAjyBeHiSxkMy51XzpvthCMuHeGl23ARnyQRLNLhp6EcT-J0OvWQocnq84XVX8RSnkBgtw%3D%3D&gaa_ts=69d37c43)

Details and context

The article marks one year since Trump's Rose Garden "Liberation Day" speech, where he unveiled reciprocal tariffs to cut trade deficits—sparking a brief stock crash but leading to negotiations and pauses after seven days. Tariffs now average higher than pre-2025 levels but U.S. growth held, unlike dire predictions.[[6]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs)

Iran conflict dominates: Trump deadlines, threats of strikes, and oil facility risks keep Brent crude elevated, echoing past shocks but with added tariff layers. NATO faces louder U.S. pressure on spending; USMCA renewal looms with U.S. eyeing stricter terms on autos, energy, amid prior 25% tariff threats on neighbors.[[7]](https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-iran-stock-market-tariffs-nato-canada-mexico-e126dd0b?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfMvKckeN62zT2LPWfi-0cOVNBzrf8SrtUKtGu1XUGAkeEjsihe_3G4&gaa_sig=tbbgKzefyoHotbqV7QIJZB4Y-sDcLSSGMISQBjHLzc_f7ns1m2iCym1bBbkboqOoolGKO0V9zuCYded_JdLFag%3D%3D&gaa_ts=69d37c43)

Key quotes

None reliably sourced from article.

Why it matters

Trump's mix of tariffs, alliances pressure, and Iran brinkmanship tests global trade and energy stability, raising recession odds if oil stays high. Investors see U.S. stocks resilient but face higher inflation and slower world growth; businesses eye USMCA risks, Latin bonds as hedges. Watch Iran ceasefire talks and July USMCA deadline—outcomes could swing oil prices and markets sharply.[[1]](https://stockanalysis.com/news)