Iran holds trump card in energy crisis

TL;DR

Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran war, depriving world of 13 million barrels of oil daily.
Physical oil trades at $145-$150 per barrel in Europe, far above paper futures under $100.
Tehran can outlast US by enduring blockade pain while global stocks dwindle into summer driving season.

The story at a glance

The Telegraph article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard argues Iran holds leverage in the worsening global energy crisis through its grip on the Strait of Hormuz during the ongoing war with the US and Israel. Key players include US President Donald Trump, Iran's IRGC, and affected nations like China and Saudi Arabia. It is reported now as US plans to blockade Iranian oil risk escalating shortages from 13 to 15 million barrels daily, with physical markets already in crisis. The Strait normally carries one-fifth of world oil.[[1]](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/iran-holds-trump-card-energy-134506419.html)

Key points

World loses 13 million barrels per day now, per IEA head Fatih Birol; could hit 15 million if US blockades Iranian oil in Strait of Hormuz.[[1]](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/iran-holds-trump-card-energy-134506419.html)
Physical "dated Brent FOB Northern Europe" at $145-$150/barrel, record premium over futures below $100; last pre-war shipments arriving or diverted to Asia.[[1]](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/iran-holds-trump-card-energy-134506419.html)
Iran threatens Red Sea expansion, endangering another 6 million barrels/day at Saudi Yanbu; ports "for everyone or no one".
Securing Strait needs 200,000 US troops and months; risks war of attrition where IRGC believes it can endure.
US boarding Chinese ships could be "act of war"; China has 300-day reserves, controls fuel prices.
Saudi East-West pipeline at full capacity; IEA/US reserves near depletion; Russia/Iran pre-loaded floating storage soaked up.

Details and context

Iran's control stems from asymmetric warfare: missiles, drones hidden in mountains along 1,000-mile coastline, defying quick US clearance despite five weeks of fighting. Trump launched war on flawed Israeli intel that Iran would fold fast, per CIA chief; now faces IRGC resilience.

Physical market stress shows real crunch: futures lag as traders bet on quick off-ramp, ignoring molecule counts. Helima Croft (RBC) warns paper-physical convergence if blockade enforced.

Quick fixes exhausted: Saudi pipeline bypasses some Gulf oil to Red Sea; UAE/Oman limited routes help marginally. China buys from Russia/Malaysia; Iran earns windfalls from price spike despite sanctions waiver reversal. Tehran accesses Turkey/Pakistan land routes, not starving short-term.[[1]](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/iran-holds-trump-card-energy-134506419.html)

Key quotes

Fatih Birol (IEA head): “The scale of the challenge has not been well understood: as of today, we are losing 13 million barrels per day and tomorrow it may be bigger.”[[1]](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/iran-holds-trump-card-energy-134506419.html)
Mohammad Ghalibaf (Iran parliament head): “Enjoy the current pump figures, [soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4-$5 gas](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/04/10/north-sea-oil-prices-hit-record-high/).”[[1]](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/iran-holds-trump-card-energy-134506419.html)

Why it matters

War risks $8/gallon US petrol and 1970s-style rationing by mid-terms, spiking inflation as $10/barrel oil rise adds 30 cents/gallon. Consumers face higher fuel/bills; businesses/investors grapple shortages, with Europe/Asia hit hardest absent Gulf oil. Watch US blockade execution, Iran Red Sea response, and talks on uranium suspension – success unlikely without Trump concessions, per analysts.