China’s GDP grows 5 per cent in first quarter

TL;DR

China's GDP expanded by 5 per cent year on year in the first quarter of 2026, matching the FT headline and beating forecasts of 4.8 per cent.[[1]](https://www.ft.com/content/f2b53afc-be95-4788-bb03-9227d4bc7379)[[2]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/15/china/china-gdp-q1-economy-growth-intl-hnk)
Growth accelerated from 4.5 per cent in Q4 2025, reaching 33.42 trillion yuan ($4.9 trillion), driven by exports and industrial output.[[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/16/china-gdp-growth-first-quarter-exports-property-retail-sales-iran-war.html)[[4]](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202604/16/WS69e04fb7a310d6866eb43cad.html)
Result puts China on track for its annual target of around 4.5-5 per cent amid external risks like Middle East tensions, but raises stimulus questions.[[5]](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202604/1359054.shtml)[[6]](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/view-chinas-first-quarter-growth-beats-forecast-despite-iran-war-risks-2026-04-16)

The story at a glance

China's National Bureau of Statistics reported first-quarter GDP growth of 5 per cent year on year, up from 4.5 per cent in late 2025 and ahead of economist expectations. The National Bureau of Statistics is the main source; coverage appears now due to the standard mid-April data release. This follows China's March setting of a 4.5-5 per cent annual target.[[7]](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/5/china-economic-growth-target-set-below-5-for-the-first-time-at-key-meeting)

Key points

GDP totalled 33.42 trillion yuan ($4.9 trillion), with quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.3 per cent.[[4]](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202604/16/WS69e04fb7a310d6866eb43cad.html)
Year-on-year figure beat Reuters poll median of 4.8 per cent; prior quarter was 4.5 per cent.[[3]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/16/china-gdp-growth-first-quarter-exports-property-retail-sales-iran-war.html)[[6]](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/view-chinas-first-quarter-growth-beats-forecast-despite-iran-war-risks-2026-04-16)
Strong exports and industrial output supported growth, per consistent reporting across Reuters, CNBC, SCMP, and state media like CGTN.[[8]](https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/china-gdp-grows-5-in-q1-beats-expectations-on-exports-spending-strength-4617012)
Matches government's around-5 per cent ambition for 2026, after 5 per cent full-year in 2025.[[9]](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-q4-gdp-grows-45-yy-just-ahead-market-forecast-2026-01-19)
Quarter-on-quarter uptick from 1.2 per cent in Q4 signals early momentum.[[6]](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/view-chinas-first-quarter-growth-beats-forecast-despite-iran-war-risks-2026-04-16)

Details and context

Official data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows the economy withstood "volatile external conditions," including Middle East conflict fallout noted in Reuters and CNN reports. Exports reportedly grew robustly, with foreign trade up 15 per cent year on year per Xinhua, helping offset any domestic softness.[[10]](https://www.facebook.com/XinhuaNewsAgency/posts/chinas-foreign-trade-grew-15-percent-year-on-year-in-the-first-quarter-q1-of-202/1390093659819831)

Growth relies on industry and exports rather than consumption alone; retail sales data from March showed mixed signals in some previews. Beijing's prior fiscal steps, like bond issuance and deficits near 4 per cent of GDP, laid groundwork, but analysts expect more if headwinds mount.[[11]](https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/china-poised-q1-gdp-growth-083204978.html)

This beat follows a pattern: Q1 often starts strong, but full-year paths depend on policy. Secondary sources align on facts without major disputes.

Key quotes

"China's economy expanded by 5 per cent year on year in the first quarter of 2026, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday."[[12]](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2026-04-16/China-s-GDP-expands-by-5-YoY-in-Q1-1MnOg3FFfBC/p.html)

Why it matters

China's solid Q1 keeps the world's second-largest economy on pace for its growth goal despite global tensions. Investors and businesses see steady demand signals for now, though exports face risks from geopolitics. Watch Q2 data and stimulus announcements, as trade disruptions could slow momentum.