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Europe's energy ghosts return amid Middle East crisis

Source: bbc.co.uk

TL;DR

Middle East conflict revives Europe's energy crisis akin to 2022 Russia-Ukraine fallout, with gas prices soaring amid Strait of Hormuz blockade.
EU slashed Russian energy imports to 2% for oil and plans zero gas by next year, now relying on US (57% LNG) and Norway.
Persistent dependencies expose Europe to global volatility, US leverage, and short-term fixes over long-term security.

The story at a glance

A new Middle East energy shock from strikes and the Strait of Hormuz blockade is forcing EU leaders into crisis mode at a Brussels summit, echoing frustrations from Russia's 2022 Ukraine invasion. Key figures include Ursula von der Leyen, who pivoted Europe from Russia but signed a $750bn US energy deal under Trump pressure, and anonymous diplomats decrying repeated vulnerabilities. This is reported now amid live price surges and summit talks on gas prices, inflation, and voters. Europe had aimed for diversification post-Ukraine but remains exposed.

Key points

In 2022, Russia supplied 55% of Germany's gas; now EU oil from Russia is 2% (to Hungary/Slovakia only), with all Russian gas imports ending next year.
US provides 57% of EU LNG imports (96% for Germany); Norway supplies a third of EU gas and half of UK's, but operates near capacity.
Trump threatened 30% tariffs, leading von der Leyen to commit $750bn over three years to US oil, LNG, nuclear; EU got zero tariffs on US imports in exchange for reduced 15% threat.
Strait of Hormuz blocked since 28 February Israel-US attacks on Iran, spiking oil 8% and European gas 20% by 2 March due to global market effects.
EU vulnerable to US "wildcards" like Trump redirecting LNG domestically or natural disasters; Norway urges reversing Arctic oil/gas bans amid Russian expansion.
Summit focuses on short-term fixes amid fears of inflation, refugees, and populist backlash, sidelining long-term competitiveness plans.

Details and context

Europe's 2022 response to Russia's Ukraine invasion was swift: rapid shift to LNG from pipeline gas, government bill aid in places like Italy/UK post-Covid, and a "diversification" push. Yet removing Russia just swapped one dependency for others, leaving the continent as world's top LNG importer exposed to Gulf disruptions despite low direct Middle East buys.

The $750bn US deal, signed at Trump's Turnberry resort, is debated in European Parliament; its scale may exceed feasible EU demand or US supply. Analyst Dan Marks from Rusi notes Europe can outbid others short-term but faces cost hikes harming competitiveness; suggests stockpiles and demand management.

Norway lobbies against EU's Arctic fossil fuel phase-out, warning it cedes ground to Russia. German Chancellor Merz stayed silent as Trump threatened Spain, likely due to LNG reliance.

Key quotes

"We swore we'd learn. We promised things would change but here we are," a highly frustrated European diplomat said.
"This choice between Russian energy and global market volatility is a very bad choice for Europe," Dan Marks, Rusi energy security specialist, told the author.
"It's a layering of risk. There are no easy answers here," Marks concluded.

Why it matters

Repeated energy shocks undermine Europe's economic stability and political unity in a volatile world. Consumers face higher bills, industries like Germany's chemicals/cars lose edge, and leaders risk voter backlash fueling populists. Watch EU summit outcomes, US LNG reliability under Trump, and Hormuz reopening, though crisis duration remains unclear.