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Oil Slumps Below $100 on Iran Ceasefire Deal

Source: bloomberg.com

TL;DR

Oil prices plunged below $100 a barrel after Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz.[[1]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-april-8)
WTI fell as much as 17% to $94.20 while Brent settled around $109 after prior gains.[[1]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-april-8)
Ceasefire eases supply fears from Hormuz closure but full recovery of 9 million bpd output will take months.[[1]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-april-8)

The story at a glance

Oil prices dropped sharply after US President Donald Trump postponed attacks on Iran for two weeks as part of a ceasefire deal requiring Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway's partial closure had disrupted a fifth of global oil and LNG flows since late February. Iran accepted a Pakistan ceasefire proposal, with Israel suspending strikes during talks, according to reports from the New York Times and CNN.[[1]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-april-8)[[2]](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-04-07)

Key points

West Texas Intermediate for May delivery fell 17% to $94.20 a barrel in early Singapore trading after a 0.5% gain the prior day; Brent for June added 0.5% to $109.77 on Tuesday.[[1]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-april-8)
US struck non-energy sites on Iran's Kharg Island ahead of an 8 p.m. ET deadline, sparing infrastructure.[[1]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-april-8)
Strait closure expected to shut in over 9 million barrels a day of Middle East oil output in April, per US estimates; WTI up nearly 50% since conflict start.[[1]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-april-8)
Trump called the ceasefire conditional on Hormuz reopening to "finalize and consummate" an agreement.[[1]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-april-8)
Vice President JD Vance expressed confidence in Iran's response but hinted at potential larger military action.[[1]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-april-8)

Details and context

The Strait of Hormuz normally handles about 20% of world oil and LNG shipments, making its near-closure a major supply shock since the US-Israel conflict began on February 28.[[1]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-april-8) Restarting shut-in wells, moving crews and vessels, and restocking refineries could take months even if flows resume soon.[[1]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-april-8)

Pakistan sought a last-minute extension of the US deadline, contributing to market volatility.[[3]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-april-8?srnd=phx-markets) Related updates include Brent hitting a record $144 in physical markets, heavy bids in key pricing amid war supply hits, and OPEC output falling the most in decades last month.[[1]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-april-8)

Trump's rhetoric escalated with threats like "a whole civilization will die tonight," but the pause marks a de-escalation step.[[1]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-april-8)

Key quotes

“The physical system won’t snap back quickly,” said Robert Rennie, head of commodity research at Westpac Banking Corp. “Restarting shut-in wells, repositioning crews and vessels, and rebuilding refinery inventories will take months.”[[1]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-april-8)

Why it matters

The ceasefire offers short-term relief from supply disruptions that spiked prices and strained global energy markets. For consumers and businesses, it could slow gasoline price rises—US averages hit over $4 a gallon amid the war—but recovery lags mean costs stay elevated.[[4]](https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/oil-futures-rise-amid-increased-supply-disruption-concerns-63eb5bd7) Watch if Iran fully reopens Hormuz and negotiators seal a deal in two weeks, as failure could reverse gains and reignite volatility.[[1]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-april-8)