Iran’s Regime Has Changed—for the Worse

TL;DR

U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but elevated his hard-line son Mojtaba and radical allies to power.
New leaders like Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr and Ahmad Vahidi have histories of assassinations, bombings, and suppressing dissent.
The war hardened the regime instead of moderating it, complicating peace prospects and threatening regional stability.

The story at a glance

A U.S.-Israeli military campaign aimed to topple or moderate Iran's leadership by killing top officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but instead accelerated the rise of his son Mojtaba Khamenei and extreme hard-liners tied to the Revolutionary Guard. Key figures now include national security chief Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, Guard commander Ahmad Vahidi, and military adviser Mohsen Rezaie, all with violent pasts. This is being reported five weeks into the war amid failed U.S. talks in Pakistan and ongoing Iranian attacks on neighbors.

Key points

A Tehran billboard depicts new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei directing Revolutionary Guard missile strikes, likening him to Imam Ali for a divinely inspired fight against enemies.
President Trump called the post-strike leadership "more reasonable," but Israeli ex-intelligence chief Danny Citrinowicz said the war created "a reality that is worse than what Iranians were facing before."
Mojtaba, injured in the strike that killed his father, relies on the "Habib Circle" network of Iraq war radicals to run security and crush opposition.
New appointees include Zolghadr, who led pre-revolution killings and founded the Quds Force; Vahidi, accused in the 1994 Buenos Aires bombing that killed 85; and Rezaie, linked to prolonging the Iran-Iraq war.
Iran has cracked down harder at home with arrests and executions while attacking Arab neighbors and controlling the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil passes.
Failed weekend talks in Islamabad featured parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and hard-liner Ali Bagheri Kani, but leaders show little interest in compromise.

Details and context

The U.S. and Israel started the war hoping assassinations would spark regime change or pliable successors, but hard-liners—long backed by Ali Khamenei—filled the void, viewing the conflict as heralding a Shiite messiah's return. Mojtaba had built Guard and Basij ties to promote allies and suppress foes, making the leadership resilient despite strikes on military, energy, and civilian sites.

These figures' extremism stands out: Zolghadr's subordinate Qassem Soleimani once quit over his views; Vahidi ran a Guard school shaping officials and oversaw 2022 protest crackdowns; Rezaie recently demanded specific conditions for any ceasefire end.

Economic strain from losses pushes some negotiation, but enmity runs deep, with Iran deploying street enforcers over protesters.

Key quotes

"The war changed the regime—and not in a good way. We created a reality that is worse than what Iranians were facing before the war." — Danny Citrinowicz, former head of Israeli military intelligence's Iran desk.[[1]](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-radical-regime-change-a42d96ea)
"The confrontation will continue until several conditions are met." — Mohsen Rezaie, Khamenei's new military adviser.[[1]](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-radical-regime-change-a42d96ea)

Why it matters

Hard-liner dominance raises risks of prolonged war, oil disruptions via the Strait of Hormuz, and escalated proxy attacks across the Middle East. Investors face volatile energy prices and businesses in the region deal with supply threats, while ordinary people in Iran endure intensified repression. Watch negotiation signals from figures like Ghalibaf, though radicals' influence makes quick de-escalation unlikely.