EU-China bridge set to crumble

TL;DR

EU-China Ties: Opinion argues against Europe deepening relations with China amid US tensions, calling it a crumbling bridge due to predatory practices.
EV Tariffs Imposed: EU added up to 35.3% duties on Chinese electric vehicles after dumping probes, alongside bans on medical devices in tenders.
Strategic Autonomy: Europe should build ties with India and Mercosur instead of choosing between US and China, given its G7 strength.

The story at a glance

This opinion piece by Robert Benson and Eduardo Castellet Nogués warns European policymakers against rebalancing towards China to hedge US uncertainties. It highlights China's industrial overcapacity, failure to curb Russia's Ukraine war, and past economic coercion as reasons any partnership would harm Europe's industries and security. The argument comes amid EU probes into Chinese dumping and recent national deals granting China infrastructure access. Europe has the world's second-largest GDP and four G7 members, enabling independent action.

Key points

China floods EU markets with overcapacity, especially electric vehicles (EVs), threatening Germany's auto sector with hundreds of thousands of job losses across dozens of industries.
Beijing provides political and economic support to Russia in Ukraine, showing low priority for European security despite the war's gravity.
Spain awarded its public bus tender to Chinese EV maker BYD, granting access to sensitive traffic data; Greece gave China's COSCO a 67% stake in Piraeus port; Germany under Olaf Scholz approved COSCO's 24.99% stake in Hamburg port.
China has used economic leverage before: rare earth export bans to Japan in 2010 over islands dispute, to the US in 2025 amid Trump tensions, and a 2023 trade embargo on Lithuania for opening a Taiwan office.
EU responses include up to 35.3% tariffs on Chinese EVs, bans on Chinese medical devices in government tenders, and the Critical Raw Materials Act targeting 10% extraction and 40% refining of key minerals by 2030.
Authors reject false choice between US and China, urging EU free trade deals with India and Mercosur for true autonomy.

Details and context

The piece frames closer EU-China ties as naive, given Beijing's view of partners as unequal and its aim to reshape global order. European manufacturing shrinks as China exports cheaply, pushing German regions toward political extremes.

National deals illustrate risks: ports like Piraeus and Hamburg offer strategic Mediterranean and Baltic access, while BYD's bus contract involves data on urban movements.

EU countermeasures build domestic capacity, but authors stress avoiding over-reliance on China, as past coercion shows economic links become political weapons.

Key quotes

"Put plainly, Europe should no more align with Beijing’s effort to dismantle the existing order than it should hope for the return of the United States of 40 years ago." – Robert Benson and Eduardo Castellet Nogués

"Europe’s competitiveness will depend on strategic discipline, not on building a bridge to Beijing that cannot, and will not, hold." – Robert Benson and Eduardo Castellet Nogués

Why it matters

China's overcapacity and coercion threaten Europe's industrial base and security, forcing a rethink of diversification beyond any single power. For businesses and investors, it signals rising tariffs and raw materials push, potentially raising costs but shielding jobs in autos and ports. Watch EU-India and EU-Mercosur deals progressing, though geopolitical shifts like US policy could alter priorities.