Avoid anarchy by enforcing Antarctic Treaty

Source: economist.com

TL;DR

• Antarctic Treaty Fragile: The 1959 Antarctic Treaty has kept the continent peaceful and demilitarised for over 60 years but faces growing threats from resource ambitions and new bases.
• Seven Claimants Frozen: Britain and former colonies hold nearly 60% of territorial claims, with Norway at under 20%, all paused by the treaty which America and Russia reject.
• Modernisation Urged: America and allies should enforce the treaty while preparing new rules on environment and tourism for future adoption.[[1]](https://www.livemint.com/news/world/how-to-avoid-anarchy-in-antarctica-11739101114867.html)[[2]](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/10/31/how-to-avoid-anarchy-in-antarctica)

The story at a glance

The Economist warns that the Antarctic Treaty, signed in 1959, is under strain from powers like Russia, China and Iran building bases amid melting ice and resource potential. Seven countries hold overlapping territorial claims frozen by the treaty, which bans new claims and military activity. This leader argues for enforcement and preparatory reforms now, as the print edition appeared on November 2, 2024.[[1]](https://www.livemint.com/news/world/how-to-avoid-anarchy-in-antarctica-11739101114867.html)[[2]](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/10/31/how-to-avoid-anarchy-in-antarctica)

Key points

• Antarctica remains the only continent without war, governed as a demilitarised scientific preserve by the 1959 treaty that entered force in 1961.
• Seven countries—Britain, Argentina, Australia, Norway and others—hold claims from the early 1900s, with Britain and ex-colonies taking almost 60% and Norway under 20%.
• China rejects the claims as outdated; America and Russia do not recognise them but reserve future claim rights.
• Russia opened its tenth base this year, China its fifth, with India building a third and Turkey planning one; Iran seeks a base despite not signing the treaty.
• Loopholes allow military gear for research, with US alleging China's dual-use tech aiding its army.
• Mining ban hard to lift before 2048 review; resources like oil, gas, copper could aid green transition but risk ecological harm without rules.
• Best fix is treaty modernisation for global management, though unlikely; America-allies alternative is enforcing status quo while drafting better environmental and tourism rules.[[1]](https://www.livemint.com/news/world/how-to-avoid-anarchy-in-antarctica-11739101114867.html)

Details and context

The treaty froze claims and barred new ones to prevent conflict during the Cold War, prioritising science "in the interest of all mankind." Global warming exposes resources, spurring a new scramble despite the demilitarisation pledge.

Russia and China site bases in resource areas and run geological surveys masked as research. By 2048, parties could review mining limits, but amendments need consensus Russia and China would block.

America's allies can use inspections to enforce while readying model rules on tourism growth and environmental safeguards, positioning for post-2048 governance if tensions ease.[[1]](https://www.livemint.com/news/world/how-to-avoid-anarchy-in-antarctica-11739101114867.html)[[3]](https://grokipedia.com/page/Colonization_of_Antarctica)

Key quotes

"Iran has not signed the treaty but has said it wants an Antarctic base to claim its 'property rights'." – The Economist, reporting Iran's position.[[1]](https://www.livemint.com/news/world/how-to-avoid-anarchy-in-antarctica-11739101114867.html)

"America’s Department of Defence alleged in 2022 that China was deploying dual-use technologies and facilities in Antarctica to improve the capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army." – US DoD allegation cited by The Economist.[[1]](https://www.livemint.com/news/world/how-to-avoid-anarchy-in-antarctica-11739101114867.html)

Why it matters

Rising great-power rivalry could turn Antarctica from scientific haven into conflict zone over resources vital for energy transition. Businesses in mining, shipping and tourism face regulatory uncertainty, while investors eye ecological and geopolitical risks in polar ventures. Watch 2048 treaty review talks and base expansions by non-signatories like Iran, though consensus blocks easy change.[[1]](https://www.livemint.com/news/world/how-to-avoid-anarchy-in-antarctica-11739101114867.html)

FAQ

Q: What does the Antarctic Treaty do?

A: Signed in 1959 and effective from 1961, it demilitarises Antarctica, freezes territorial claims, bans new ones and dedicates the continent to peaceful scientific use. It applies south of 60° latitude but leaves high seas rights intact.

Q: Which countries hold Antarctic territorial claims?

A: Seven nations including Britain, Argentina, Australia and Norway; Britain and former colonies control nearly 60%, Norway under 20%. Claims overlap and date to early 1900s. America and Russia reject them but reserve future rights.

Q: Why is the treaty at risk now?

A: Powers like Russia and China expand bases in resource zones, using research loopholes for military tech; Iran seeks a base. Melting ice reveals oil, gas and minerals, tempting exploitation before the 2048 mining review.

Q: What solutions does the article propose?

A: Modernise the treaty into a global management pact, though vetoes block it; America and allies should enforce current rules and draft new ones on environment and tourism for future adoption.

[[1]](https://www.livemint.com/news/world/how-to-avoid-anarchy-in-antarctica-11739101114867.html)[[2]](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/10/31/how-to-avoid-anarchy-in-antarctica)