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Jordan tops risk from Gulf energy shock

Source: economist.com

TL;DR

The Economist ranks poor countries' vulnerability to the energy shock from the third Gulf war by exposure to imports and financial buffers.
Jordan tops the list with net oil and gas imports at 5.32% of GDP and external debt at 42% of GDP; Pakistan follows at 4.39% imports.
Poor importers like Pakistan, Egypt and Jordan risk macroeconomic crisis due to low reserves covering under three months of imports.[[1]](https://says.com/my/news/top-15-countries-most-affected-the-strait-of-hormuz-closure)[[2]](https://www.facebook.com/PhilCIPAG/posts/finance-economics-the-darkest-hourswhich-country-is-the-biggest-loser-from-the-e/1219754236981436)

The story at a glance

The third Gulf war has disrupted energy supplies across the poor world, prompting rationing in Nepal, firm closures in Sri Lanka, and school shutdowns in Pakistan. The Economist analyses emerging markets' exposure to higher oil and gas import costs from the Middle East and their capacity to absorb the hit via reserves and fiscal strength. This comes as IMF head Kristalina Georgieva warns of an "unthinkable" scenario, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade exacerbating shortages.[[3]](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/03/19/which-country-is-the-biggest-loser-from-the-energy-shock)

Key points

Countries face dual measures: exposure (share of GDP on net oil/gas imports, mostly from Middle East) and buffers (foreign reserves, debt repayments as share of reserves).
Jordan ranks highest risk: oil/gas imports 5.32% of GDP, external debt 42.11% of GDP, heavy Gulf reliance but possible aid from allies.[[1]](https://says.com/my/news/top-15-countries-most-affected-the-strait-of-hormuz-closure)
Pakistan second: imports 4.39% of GDP (90% Middle East-sourced), reserves cover under 3 months imports (below IMF minimum).[[2]](https://www.facebook.com/PhilCIPAG/posts/finance-economics-the-darkest-hourswhich-country-is-the-biggest-loser-from-the-e/1219754236981436)
Egypt and Sri Lanka follow: Egypt at 2.86-3% GDP imports (50% regional), debt repayments 56% reserves; Sri Lanka 3.23% imports, 42% debt.
India copes better despite 3% GDP spend, thanks to larger buffers; Nepal has high exposure but stronger reserves.[[4]](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/kumar-v-pratap-phd-aaa65428_which-country-is-the-biggest-loser-from-the-activity-7441689687339118592-Mw_K)

Details and context

The article combines exposure and buffer scores into a ranking of emerging markets at risk of crisis, focusing on poor importers hit hardest when supply tightens—a pattern from past shocks. High exposure stems from Middle East dependence amid Strait of Hormuz risks; weak buffers mean scant reserves for imports or debt, risking devaluation and inflation.

Pakistan's 90% regional sourcing leaves little room as schools close to save fuel. Egypt faces $29bn repayments straining reserves. Jordan may get Gulf/Western help, but ties amplify remittance risks if Gulf economies falter.[[4]](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/kumar-v-pratap-phd-aaa65428_which-country-is-the-biggest-loser-from-the-activity-7441689687339118592-Mw_K)[[2]](https://www.facebook.com/PhilCIPAG/posts/finance-economics-the-darkest-hourswhich-country-is-the-biggest-loser-from-the-e/1219754236981436)

This shock echoes 1970s oil crises but hits debt-laden poor countries amid global volatility.

Key quotes

IMF head Kristalina Georgieva calls the scenario “the unthinkable”.[[3]](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/03/19/which-country-is-the-biggest-loser-from-the-energy-shock)

Why it matters

Energy importers in the poor world bear the brunt as prices soar and supplies dwindle from Gulf disruptions. Businesses face closures, households ration fuel, and governments risk default without aid, worsening poverty. Watch for prolonged war effects on reserves and IMF bailouts, though aid to allies like Jordan could shift outcomes.